Democratic poll shows neck-and-neck race brewing in Florida House district

An internal poll shows a tight race brewing in Florida’s 16th Congressional District between Democratic state Rep. Margaret Good and seven-term Rep. Vern BuchananVernon Gale BuchananMORE (R).

The internal poll from Good’s campaign, which was obtained exclusively by The Hill, shows Buchanan with a 48-45 advantage over Good among likely voters, a difference that falls within the survey’s margin of error. Another 7 percent remain undecided.

Good has a 47-41 lead among independents, and the two contenders are deadlocked at 47 percent support among seniors.

The result is a marginal improvement from the same poll conducted last month, which showed Buchanan with a 6-point advantage.

Buchanan’s favorability rating is even with 43 percent of voters saying they have a favorable view of him and 43 percent saying they have an unfavorable view. Thirty-nine percent of voters rate Good favorably, while 33 percent view her unfavorably. Twenty-eight percent of voters say they have not heard of her.

Good is also boosted by a strong showing in the poll by Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenFederal judge shoots down Texas proclamation allowing one ballot drop-off location per county Sanders endorses more than 150 down-ballot Democrats Debate commission cancels Oct. 15 Trump-Biden debate MORE, who trails President TrumpDonald John TrumpFederal judge shoots down Texas proclamation allowing one ballot drop-off location per county Nine people who attended Trump rally in Minnesota contracted coronavirus Schiff: If Trump wanted more infections ‘would he be doing anything different?’ MORE by 4 points in the district. Trump won the district by 11 points in 2016.

Good first gained prominence after flipping a state House district in 2018, ousting Sarasota real estate agent James Buchanan (R), Vern Buchanan’s son, in a race Democrats said was a sign of burgeoning party strength in the state. 

“In 2018, I won a special election to the state house that no one thought was possible because voters were ready for change and we are feeling that same energy on the ground in Florida this year,” Good told The Hill. “Voters want a representative who actually represents them, not special interests, and is committed to strengthening our economy, solving our water quality issues, and lowering healthcare costs.” 

“Our message is resonating, and we are committed to continuing to make sure it reaches every voter during the last weeks of the campaign.” 

Democrats are hopeful that the Sarasota-area district is in play this cycle after Buchanan’s margin of victory tightened in recent years. He won reelection by 24 points in 2014, 20 points in 2016 and 10 points in 2018. However, Buchanan remains well-known in the district and has the advantage of incumbency.

Florida House races have suddenly been thrust into an under-the-radar, yet important role in the presidential race.

Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiLoeffler unveils resolution condemning Pelosi for comments on 25th Amendment On The Money: Trump fuels and frustrates COVID-19 relief talks | Trump proposes .8T coronavirus relief package | Vegas ties helped Trump score M windfall in 2016

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Internal poll shows tight race in Virginia House race

Virginia Democrat Cameron Webb has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Good in the state’s 5th Congressional District, according to an internal poll released Friday by Webb’s campaign.

In the poll, which was obtained exclusively by The Hill, 45 percent of likely voters said they would back Webb while 42 percent said they would vote for Good. The survey marks an improvement for Webb after the same poll in August showed him behind by 2 points.

The results are split along partisan lines, but Webb has been able to win over 11 percent of Republican likely voters, while Good gets the support of 5 percent of likely Democratic voters. Webb has a 42-19 lead among independents, though another 39 percent are undecided.

Both candidates are only moderately well-known, with 65 percent of voters saying they’ve heard of Webb and 68 percent saying the same of Good.

“Voters across Virginia’s 5th District are sick of the same old partisan, Washington politics, which is why they’re responding to our message of putting people over party,” said Webb. “Our message of working for consensus and ensuring opportunities for health and success for everyone is resonating with voters. I look forward to continuing to reach out to voters all across the district in the remaining 25 days.”

Democrats are betting that Webb, a medical doctor who works with coronavirus patients, can make gains in the district after Good, a former Liberty University staffer, unseated Rep. Denver RigglemanDenver RigglemanWhy the Supreme Court must be kept at nine justices Hillicon Valley: House votes to condemn QAnon | Americans worried about foreign election interference | DHS confirms request to tap protester phones House approves measure condemning QAnon, but 17 Republicans vote against it MORE (R) at the GOP convention after Riggleman officiated a same-sex wedding.

The party sees the district moving in its direction after Republican Tom GarrettThomas (Tom) Alexander GarrettInternal poll shows neck-and-neck race brewing in Virginia House contest GOP congressman loses primary after officiating gay wedding Virginia GOP to pick House nominee after candidate misses filing deadline MORE won there by about 16 points in 2016, but Riggleman won his first term in 2018 by just over 6 points. 

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, rates the race in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District as a “toss up.”

The internal poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, surveyed 500 likely voters from Sept. 27-Oct. 1 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

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Poll shows Biden leading Trump, tight House race in key Nebraska district

A new Democratic poll shows presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenFive takeaways from the vice presidential debate Harris accuses Trump of promoting voter suppression Pence targets Biden over ISIS hostages, brings family of executed aid worker to debate MORE with a hefty lead over President TrumpDonald John TrumpFive takeaways from the vice presidential debate Harris accuses Trump of promoting voter suppression Pence targets Biden over ISIS hostages, brings family of executed aid worker to debate MORE in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, and Democrat Kara Eastman holding a slim advantage there over Rep. Don Bacon (R). 

A poll conducted for the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) PAC and obtained exclusively by The Hill shows Biden getting the support of 53 percent of likely voters surveyed, compared with 42 percent for Trump. Another 5 percent are undecided, will vote for another candidate or refused to answer. Biden has a heftier 58 percent to 33 percent advantage among voters who have already cast ballots. 

In the House race, Eastman narrowly leads Bacon by a 47 percent-45 percent margin, while Libertarian candidate Tyler Schaeffer gets 6 percent. Eastman also grows her lead over Bacon among those who have already voted, holding a 59 percent-36 percent edge. 

“Kara Eastman has continued to earn the support of Nebraskans by running a grassroots campaign that puts the needs of working families in her district first,” said CPC PAC co-chairpersons Rep. Mark PocanMark William PocanCongress fiddles while the US burns, floods, and ails Overnight Defense: Nearly 500 former national security officials formally back Biden | 40 groups call on House panel to investigate Pentagon’s use of coronavirus funds 40 groups call on House panel to investigate Pentagon’s use of coronavirus funds MORE (D-Wis.), Pramila JayapalPramila JayapalHouse votes to condemn alleged hysterectomies on migrant women Trump proposes capping refugee admissions at 15,000 in historic low ‘One more serious try’ on COVID-19 relief yields progress but no deal MORE (D-Wash.) and Jamie RaskinJamin (Jamie) Ben RaskinJewish lawmakers targeted by anti-Semitic tweets ahead of election: ADL Lawmakers urge IRS to get stimulus payments to domestic violence survivors OVERNIGHT ENERGY:  House passes sweeping clean energy bill | Pebble Mine CEO resigns over secretly recorded comments about government officials  | Corporations roll out climate goals amid growing pressure to deliver MORE (D-Md.). “She is in a strong position to win this election because voters know that Kara will fight to lower the cost of prescription drugs, make sure that workers have access to paid family leave and paid sick leave, and stand up to corporate special interests in Washington.” 

The district, which encompasses Omaha, is a top presidential and House battleground. The Cornhusker State is just one of two in the nation that splits up its electoral votes based on the presidential candidates’ performances both statewide and in each congressional district. 

In Nebraska, the statewide popular vote winner gets two electoral votes, and each of the state’s three congressional districts grants one electoral vote.

The state as a whole, and

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Democrat-turned-Republican Van Drew trails Amy Kennedy in New Jersey House race: poll

Democratic-turned-GOP Rep. Jeff Van DrewJeff Van DrewThe Hill’s Campaign Report: 19 years since 9/11 | Dem rival to Marjorie Taylor Greene drops out | Collin Peterson faces fight of his career | Court delivers blow to ex-felon voting rights in Florida The Hill’s 12:30 Report: First Kennedy to lose a Massachusetts election Ex-Democrat Van Drew speaks at GOP convention MORE (N.J.) is trailing Democrat Amy Kennedy in the race for New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District, according to a Monmouth University poll released on Monday. 

Forty-nine percent of registered voters polled said they supported Kennedy, while 44 percent said they backed Van Drew in the South Jersey district. 

The same poll showed Kennedy leading in high voter turnout and low voter turnout scenarios as well. Kennedy beat Van Drew 50 percent to 44 percent in a high voter turnout scenario and 51 percent to 44 percent in a low turnout scenario. 

Additionally, Kennedy holds a bigger lead among Democrats than Van Drew does with Republicans. Ninety-four percent of Democrats said they supported Kennedy while 89 percent of Republicans said the same about Van Drew.

Kennedy is a former teacher and mental health advocate. She announced her candidacy in January, calling Trump and Van Drew “symptoms of a bigger sickness infecting our country and our politics.” 

Van Drew became a prime target for Democrats earlier this year when he announced that he would oppose President TrumpDonald John TrumpQuestions remain unanswered as White House casts upbeat outlook on Trump’s COVID-19 fight White House staffers get email saying to stay home if they experience coronavirus symptoms White House says ‘appropriate precautions’ were taken for Trump’s outing to see supporters MORE‘s impeachment and that he was leaving the Democratic Party for the Republican Party. He won his seat as a Democrat in 2018. 

The congressman explained his party-switch at the Republican National Convention in August. 

“I was elected to Council as a Democrat, but as I won seats for county office, state legislature and then Congress, I noticed things were changing — the Democrat Party had become less accepting of American tradition, less believing in American exceptionalism, less supportive of traditional faith and family,” he said. “This was not the party that I knew.” 

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss-up.”

The Monmouth University poll was conducted on from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1 among 588 voters in New Jersey’s second congressional district. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.  

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British house price boom to fizzle out next year: Reuters poll

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) – British home prices will rise 2.0% this year following a post-lockdown boom in the housing market, according to a Reuters poll, marking a sharp turnaround in views from a 5.0% fall predicted three months ago.

Britain’s economy shrank more than 20% in the second quarter after the government forced businesses to close and citizens to stay home, but it is expected to rebound with 15.8% growth this quarter as some restrictions have been relaxed.

The lockdown meant people spent more time indoors and a dash for larger homes and gardens pushed up prices in September, a survey by property website Rightmove showed last week.

That chimed with other surveys that have shown a post-lockdown surge in the market, also helped by a temporary cut in property tax.

Prices will rise 2.0% this year, the Sept. 15-25 poll of 22 property experts showed, but stagnate next year after the tax break finishes and due to an expected spike in unemployment following the closure of the government’s furlough scheme.

“Those who have been hit medically or financially by COVID-19 will have bigger issues to worry about than moving for a bigger garden,” said property market consultant Henry Pryor.

“We may well run out of a pool of buyers prepared and able to move for lifestyle reasons as the flood of negative headlines about the true cost of the pandemic to individuals and the nation starts to become clearer.”

When asked about the risk of the recent surge in prices reversing by the end of the year, respondents were split, with nine saying it was high, seven saying it was low and three saying very low. None said it was very high.

“Sellers are achieving a record share of their asking price, and while this metric isn’t directly correlated with house price growth, it points towards a strong market where price falls are unlikely,” said Aneisha Beveridge at estate agents Hamptons International.

However nearly 80%, or 14 of 18, analysts who responded to an additional question said the risk to their forecasts was to the downside. In a worst case scenario prices will be flat this year – albeit very different to the 11.0% median fall given in June – and fall 3.3% in 2021.

Prices in London, long a hotbed for foreign investors, will flatline this year but recover 1.0% next year and rise 3.3% in 2022. In a worst case they will fall 1.0% this year and 5.0% next, the poll showed.

“London is the only part of the UK where house prices are not rising and affordability has crept in,” said Tony Williams at property consultancy Building Value.

When asked to describe the level of house prices in the capital on a scale of 1 to 10 from extremely cheap to extremely expensive, the median response was 8. Nationally it was 6.

Another distraction for forecasters is that Britain’s transition period after leaving the European Union is due to expire at the

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Democrats Close to Flipping Virginia House District Trump Won by 11 Points, Internal Poll Shows

One point.

That is how much Democrat Dr. Cameron Webb, is trailing Republican Bob Good, a self-described “biblical conservative,” for Virginia’s open 5th Congressional District, according to an internal Democratic poll provided to Newsweek.

The survey suggests that the district, currently held by Republican Rep. Denver Riggleman, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump but was ousted by his party during a June nominating convention after he officiated a same-sex wedding, is becoming increasingly in play for Democrats. Despite Trump winning the district, which stretches from the North Carolina border nearly to Washington, D.C., by 11 points in 2016, Dr. Webb has continued to close his gap with Good.

Riggleman’s ouster for the more conservative Good, who is a former athletics official at Jerry Falwell Jr.’s Liberty University, weakened the chances that a Republican would maintain control of the district, according to election forecasters. However, analysts like Inside Elections, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rate the race as “leans Republican.”

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Dr. Webb is one of 34 candidates that House Democrats are looking to help them increase their majority in the lower chamber.

The internal poll was conducted by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group for 314 Action, an organization that’s committed to electing scientists and STEM professionals to elected office. It showed 46 percent of likely voters backing Dr. Webb while 47 percent went for Good. The survey was conducted among 400 likely general election voters between September 10-14, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Dr. Webb is now within one point of Good thanks to a five-point gain since August, per 314 Action’s internal polling. By comparison, Riggleman cruised to re-election in 2018, beating his Democratic opponent by seven points.

Cameron Webb
Democratic congressional candidate for Virginia’s 5th District, Dr. Cameron Webb, is seen here teaching in 2019. A new internal poll provided to Newsweek shows Dr. Webb trailing his GOP opponent, Bob Good, by a singular point.
Courtesy of the Webb Campaign

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“Cameron’s background, taken in its entirety, is very impactful to voters right now,” Mia Ehrenberg, Dr. Webb’s communications director, told Newsweek.

Dr. Webb, who practices general internal medicine in Charlottesville and teaches at the University of Virginia School of Medicine, held brief White House stints under both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, dealing with health care policy and economic development. He worked on Obama’s My Brother’s Keeper Initiative during the final six months of Obama’s tenure, and on prescription drug prices for the first eight months of Trump’s presidency.

The Good campaign did not respond to Newsweek‘s request for comment as of the time of publication. This story will be updated if a response is received.

Both candidates’ familiarity among constituents has jumped in the last month. Sixty percent indicated in the poll that they’re now familiar with Dr. Webb while 63 percent are familiar with Good.

In terms of favorability, Good still trailed Dr. Webb.

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North Carolina poll shows close races for White House, Senate

Biden notched a 3-point lead in a CNN/SRSS poll published Tuesday, a 2-point lead in a Monmouth University poll published Sept. 3, and a 4-point lead in a Fox News poll published Sept. 2.

According to a RealClearPolitics average of North Carolina surveys conducted from Aug. 29-Sept. 14, Biden remains 0.9 percentage points ahead of Trump in general election polling.

Trump won North Carolina’s 15 Electoral College votes by 3.8 percentage points in 2016. The state has flipped between backing Democratic and Republican presidential candidates in previous election cycles.

Former President Barack Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, but lost there in 2012 to former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

The latest Suffolk University/USA Today survey also shows Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham with a narrow edge over Republican incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis.

The closely watched race is one of a handful in which endangered Senate Republicans are battling for reelection, and it could decide whether the GOP maintains control of the chamber.

Cunningham leads Tillis by 4 percentage points among likely voters, 42-38 percent.

The RealClearPolitics average of polling for the North Carolina Senate race, which includes surveys from Aug. 29-Sept. 14, shows Cunningham ahead of Tillis by 3.5 percentage points.

Tillis is widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans competing for another term in November, along with Maine’s Susan Collins, Colorado’s Cory Gardner and Arizona’s Martha McSally.

The Suffolk University/USA Today poll was conducted Sept. 11-14, surveying 500 likely voters in North Carolina.

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