- The shift of Americans from cities to suburbs could drive long-term home improvement sales, according to Wells Fargo.
- That could benefit home improvement retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s and auto-focused retailers like Carvana and AutoZone.
- In the research note, Wells Fargo senior equity analyst Zachary Fadem said cities have lost their luster as people look for more space for working and learning at home and aspects of city life from public transit to high-end restaurants are unavailable or unappealing.
As some Americans flee cities and move into suburban or rural areas during the coronavirus pandemic, some analysts are predicting home projects and repairs will shift from a trend to long-term habit.
That could add up to more sales for Home Depot, Lowe’s and other retailers with a wide variety of home improvement items, from paint and tools to kitchen appliances, according to a Wells Fargo Securities research note. Those retailers have already seen strong sales and growing profits during the pandemic, as Americans spend more time in their homes and dollars they would have otherwise doled out for restaurant bills or summer vacations.
The suburban shift could also benefit auto-focused retailers, such as Carvana, AutoZone, O’Reilly Automotive and Advance Auto Parts, according to the note.
In the research note, Wells Fargo senior equity analyst Zachary Fadem spelled out factors that have driven some people out of cities. Among them, he said, about 65% of early Covid-19 cases were concentrated in dense cities. People have sought out more space as they work and learn at home and as aspects of city life from public transit to high-end restaurants are unavailable or unappealing.
He pointed to recent earnings reports by retailers that soared past Wall Street expectations, citing de-urbanization as one of the causes.
A survey of about 1,000 consumers by the Wells Fargo analysts found that more than 88% planned to increase their retail spending in the second half of the year on items, such as appliances and electronics, with home improvement being the biggest category for that spending. About 14% of the consumers surveyed said they moved or have plans to move because of Covid-19. And more than half said they expect to work from home into 2021.
Even a small increase in moves could translate to a significant uptick in home improvement spending, Fadem said in the note. He estimated there are about 73 million single-family households and about 8 million multifamily households across the country. A 1% shift could add more than $2 billion to the home improvement category and add approximately $700 million in the home furnishings category.
Some retailers have predicted sustained growth, too. Home Depot CEO Craig Menear said