Coronavirus live news: one million deaths worldwide; warning that Germany faces 19,200 cases a day | World news

Global deaths from Covid-19 have reached 1 million, but experts are still struggling to figure out a crucial metric in the pandemic: the fatality rate – the percentage of people infected with the pathogen who die.

Here is a look at issues surrounding better understanding the COVID-19 death rate.

How is a death rate calculated?

A true mortality rate would compare deaths against the total number of infections, a denominator that remains unknown because the full scope of asymptomatic cases is difficult to measure. Many people who become infected simply do not experience symptoms.

Scientists have said the total number of infections is exponentially higher than the current number of confirmed cases, now at 33 million globally. Many experts believe the coronavirus likely kills 0.5% to 1% of people infected, making it a very dangerous virus globally until a vaccine is identified.

Researchers have begun to break down that risk by age group, as evidence mounts that younger people and children are far less likely to experience severe disease.

“The death rate for people below age 20 is probably one in 10,000. Over the age of 85 it is around one in 6,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.

Gravediggers in Indonesia have struggled to cope with demand from Covid-19 deaths.

Gravediggers in Indonesia have struggled to cope with demand from Covid-19 deaths. Photograph: Ed Wray/Getty Images

What is a “case fatality rate”?

There has been an apparent decline in death rates when measured against the number of new infections confirmed by coronavirus testing. In places like the United States, that “case fatality rate” has fallen dramatically from 6.6% in April to just over 2% in August, according to Reuters statistics.

But experts said that the decline has largely been driven by more widespread testing compared with the early days of the pandemic, detecting more people who have mild illness or no symptoms. Improvements in treating the severely ill and protecting some of the highest-risk groups, are also credited with improving survival.

“We are much more aware of potential complications and how to recognize and treat them,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security in Baltimore. “If you are a patient who gets COVID-19 in 2020, you would much rather get it now than in March.”

A Covid-19 test being conducted in Guwahati, in northeastern India.

A Covid-19 test being conducted in Guwahati, in northeastern India. Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

What does that mean for individuals, and governments?

That highlights the need for continued vigilance, as some countries begin to experience a second wave of infections.

For example, researchers in France estimate that country’s case fatality rate fell by 46% by the end of July compared with the end of May, driven by an increase in testing, improved medical care and a greater proportion of infections occurring in younger people, who are less likely to experience severe disease.

“Now, we are seeing a fresh rise in hospitalisations and ICU (intensive care unit) registrations, which means this discrepancy is about to end,” said Mircea Sofonea,

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Coronavirus live news: one million deaths worldwide; White House Covid taskforce rift deepens | World news

Coronavirus cases were rising in 30 of the 50 US states on Monday, the first time that many states have trended upwards since 2 August, according to a Reuters analysis of data for the past two weeks.

The number of new cases has risen for two weeks in a row in 27 out of 50 states, with North Carolina and New Mexico both reporting increases above 50% last week, according to Reuters.

Cases in New York state have risen 4.4% so far in September, one of the smallest increases in the country.

Cuomo urged New Yorkers to remain vigilant in mask-wearing and warned of consequences if they do not comply.

“It’s not time to get tired because the virus isn’t tired,” he said.

The midwest has emerged as the country’s new hotspot, with hospitalisations surging in some states.

Wisconsin set records for new cases twice last week and is now reporting more new infections each day than Florida. South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming have all set records for new daily cases three times this month.

The positive rate has risen to 26% in South Dakota, up from 17% last week, according to an analysis using data from the Covid Tracking Project, a volunteer-run effort to track the outbreak.

On Monday, according to the analysis, the rate in Wisconsin was 19%; it was 16% in both Iowa and Missouri; 15% in Kansas; and 14% in Nebraska.

The US is reporting 45,000 new infections on average each day, compared with 40,000 a week ago and 35,000 two weeks ago.

Deaths have generally been trending downward in the US for about six weeks. Deaths are a lagging indicator, however, and can take several weeks to rise after an increase in cases.

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Coronavirus Live Updates: World Approaches One Million Deaths

“We have been warning for several weeks now that we have not defeated the epidemic,” France’s health minister, Olivier Véran, told French media on Sunday. “The virus has not disappeared. The epidemic has picked up again.”

The number of Covid-19 deaths has risen by 83 percent over the last 14 days, according to a New York Times database. Still, the death rate — averaging about 50 deaths per day in the last week — is far lower than it was in the spring, when the figure averaged more than 1,000 per day. Nonetheless, dozens of cities and regions across the country are preparing to enforce new restrictions on Monday, in an attempt to stem the rising tide of infections.

French authorities have placed a number of French cities, including Paris, Lyon and Bordeaux, on a “reinforced alert” level, which, starting on Monday, will restrict public gatherings to no more than 10 people. Bars will have to close early and enclosed sport establishments must shut down completely.

Meanwhile, hospitals are again under strain, with some 600 new Covid-19 hospitalizations each day since mid-September. Covid-19 patients now represent at least 10 percent of patients in intensive care across the country.

In recent months, France has ramped up its testing policy, with more than one million tests conducted per week, or about five times more than in April. But French laboratories lack the capacity to keep up with the number of tests carried out, resulting in a backlog of tests that have hampered France’s strategy for preventing a second outbreak.

On Saturday, two Nobel Prize-winning economists suggested in Le Monde newspaper that France impose a national lockdown for most of December in order to allow families to gather safely for the end-of-year holidays and “save Christmas.”

Mr. Véran reacted by saying that a lockdown was not part of the government’s plans so far: “We do not rule out any option, but we do not plan for the lockdown option, we act to prevent it.”

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Trump’s Paris Agreement pullout could cause 400,000 deaths in New York alone: House Oversight report

President Trump’s controversial bid to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement could have devastating consequences for his former home state, according to a new scientific report out of Congress.



a large body of water with a city in the background: The New York City skyline is seen from the Staten Island Ferry.


© Barry Williams
The New York City skyline is seen from the Staten Island Ferry.

The report, produced by the House Oversight Committee and obtained exclusively by the Daily News ahead of its Saturday release, concluded that more than 400,000 New Yorkers could die prematurely from various illnesses related to climate change over the next five decades if Trump’s successful in rescinding the U.S. commitment to the landmark agreement.

The unsettling finding is based on research by Dr. Drew Shindell, a professor of Earth Sciences at Duke University and a leading expert on the health effects of climate change and air pollution.

The Paris Agreement requires nations to work together toward keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius by limiting greenhouse gas emissions and investing in renewable energy. President Barack Obama and the leaders of most of the world’s other industrialized nations signed the accord in April 2016.

But Trump filed notice last year to pull out of the agreement. The U.S. exit officially takes effect on Nov. 4 — the day after the presidential election.

If the Republican president wins a second term and successfully cuts the U.S. out of the accord, the House Oversight Committee report predicts that the global average temperature would soar above 2 degrees Celsius, especially since the president has already rolled back “numerous key” environmental regulations during his first four years in office.

Such a temperature bump would cause a plethora of health issues across the U.S., including an increase in cardiovascular and respiratory diseases as air qualities worsen, according to the report.

House Oversight Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) noted that the report’s gloomy predictions can be prevented if the U.S. recommits to the Paris Climate Agreement.

“We could save hundreds of thousands of lives, prevent unnecessary illnesses and hospitalizations, avoid tens of millions of lost workdays, and save trillions of dollars in economic benefits — all right here in our State of New York,” Maloney told The News on Friday.

In New York alone, as many as 423,000 residents would die from climate change-related illnesses between now and 2070, the report assesses.

In addition to the staggering death toll, the report predicts that the temperature spike would result in 400,000 emergency room visits in New York over the same time period, including an estimated 5,700 hospitalizations of children with asthma.

There would also be a ripple effect on New York’s economy, the report says, with an estimated 45 million workdays lost, resulting in a $3.5 trillion blow to the state’s finances — above and beyond the economic crisis caused by the pandemic.

White House spokesman Judd Deere disputed the committee’s findings as “completely partisan.”

“Other countries and the radical left remain obsessed with the Paris Climate Accord, which shackles economies and has done nothing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” Deere

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White House seeks to change subject from 200K COVID-19 deaths

The U.S. death toll from COVID-19 surpassed 200,000 on Tuesday, but the grim milestone passed without too much of a comment from a White House more focused on the battle over the Supreme Court.

Trump used a recorded speech to the annual United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday to condemn China for unleashing “the plague onto the world” but did not mention the fact that the U.S. was nearing 200,000 deaths.

The U.S. passed that marker a couple hours later, according to John Hopkins University.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany opened her briefing about 90 minutes later with an attack on Democrats about the battle to nominate a successor to liberal Justice Ruth Bader GinsburgRuth Bader GinsburgGraham: GOP will confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee before the election Trump puts Supreme Court fight at center of Ohio rally The Memo: Dems face balancing act on SCOTUS fight MORE.

She did not mention the 200,000 death toll until she was pressed about it by reporters.

“We grieve when one life is lost,” McEnany said, while citing models early in the pandemic that showed the death toll could have been in the millions without any intervention.

Asked if Trump planned to acknowledge the 200,000 milestone either on Twitter or at his Tuesday night rally, McEnany did not answer but argued the president had expressed his condolences “throughout this pandemic.”

“He has said before that it keeps him up at night thinking of even one life lost,” she said. “This president has taken this incredibly seriously. And what he’s done is he’s worked harder. Each and every day he works hard, puts his head down, and I think that’s very evident in the administration’s historic response.”

Vice President Pence was the rare official to acknowledge 200,000 Americans had died when he told the crowd at a New Hampshire campaign rally that the U.S. had reached a “heartbreaking milestone” and extended his thoughts to those who have lost loved ones to the virus.

Trump did not mention the death toll from the coronavirus at his Monday evening rally in Swanton, Ohio, where many in the crowd were not wearing masks. Members of the crowd earlier in the night booed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted after the Republican urged people to put on their masks, which were branded with Trump campaign messages. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWineMike DeWineTrump supporters boo GOP Ohio governor at rally Ohio bars local, state officials from closing churches, changing election dates New York puts Ohio back on travel advisory list MORE (R), who earlier this year locked down much of the state to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, also received a mix of cheers and boos at the rally.

Trump acknowledged the 100,000 death mark in May by tweeting it was a “very sad milestone” and ordering flags outside the White House be lowered to half-staff. Flags at the White House are already lowered to half-staff in honor of Ginsburg.

Polls show a majority disapproves of Trump’s handling

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